USDA Forecasts Record-High Corn and Soybean Production in 2014

Washington, Aug. 12, 2014 – U.S. soybean producers are expected to produce a record 3.82 billion bushels in 2014, up 16 percent from last year according to the Crop Production report issued today (Aug 12, 2014) by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Growing conditions were conducive for corn growers who are also expected to produce a record-high crop at
Today’s report also included the first production forecast for U.S. cotton. NASS forecasts all cotton production at 17.5 million 480-pound bales, up 36 percent from last year’s 12.9 million bales. Wheat production is forecast up 2 percent from the July forecast but down 5 percent from 2013.

NASS surveyed nearly 25,000 producers across the country in preparation for this report. The agency also conducted field and lab measurements on corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton in the major producing states, which usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production.

Other key findings in today’s Crop Production report include:

Corn
Corn planted area for all purposes is estimated at 91.6 million acres, unchanged from the June estimate but down 4 percent from 2013.  Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.8 million acres, down 4 percent from last year.  August 1 objective yield data indicate the greatest number of ears on record for the combined 10 objective yield states (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin).  Despite a late winter season delay in planting, more favorable spring conditions arrived allowing quick planting and largely favorable growing conditions that encouraged the record high production forecast.

Soybeans
Area for harvest is forecast at a record 84.1 million acres, unchanged from June but up 11 percent from 2013. Despite a slow planting start, by June 1 fifty percent of the soybean crop had emerged, 21 percentage points ahead of last year’s pace and 5 percentage points ahead of normal.  Positive conditions in most soybean-producing areas of the country brought on strong percentages of the crop being rated good to excellent and the record forecast.  The largest decline in condition rating was in Kentucky where dry conditions this year resulted in 61 percent of the crop rated as good to excellent, a drop of 26 percentage points.  If realized, the forecasted yield will be a record high in Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Winter Wheat
Production is forecast at 1.40 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the July 1 forecast, but down 9 percent from 2013.  Based on August 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 43.1 bushels per acre, up 0.9 from last month but down 4.3 bushels from last year.  Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed is 32.4 million acres, up slightly from last year.

With this report, NASS resumes apple, peach, pear and grape forecasts in the monthly Crop Production report. Numbers for these crops were not published last year due to sequestration.

NASS is gearing up to conduct its September Agricultural Survey, which will focus on wheat, barley, oats and rye growers. That survey will take place during the first two weeks of September.

The Crop Production report is published monthly and is available online at www.nass.usda.gov.